For members of the TRIPOD Group, see the Appendix.ĭIAGNOSTIC AND PROGNOSTIC PREDICTION MODELS Multivariable prediction models fall into 2 broad categories: diagnostic and prognostic prediction models (Box A). doi:10.7326/M14-0698 For author affiliations, see end of text. Other names for a prediction model include risk prediction model, predictive model, prognostic (or prediction) index or rule, and risk score (9).Īnn Intern Med.
A multivariable prediction model is a mathematical equation that relates multiple predictors for a particular individual to the probability of or risk for the presence (diagnosis) or future occurrence (prognosis) of a particular outcome (10, 12). In virtually all medical domains, diagnostic and prognostic multivariable (risk) prediction models are being developed, validated, updated, and implemented with the aim to assist doctors and individuals in estimating probabilities and potentially influence their decision making. Information from a single predictor is often insufficient to provide reliable estimates of diagnostic or prognostic probabilities or risks (8, 11). In both the diagnostic and prognostic setting, probability estimates are commonly based on combining information from multiple predictors observed or measured from an individual (1, 2, 8 –10). Such estimates of risk can also be used to risk-stratify participants in therapeutic intervention trials (4 –7). In the prognostic context, predictions can be used for planning lifestyle or therapeutic decisions on the basis of the risk for developing a particular outcome or state of health within a specific period (1–3). In the diagnostic setting, the probability that a particular disease is present can be used, for example, to inform the referral of patients for further testing, to initiate treatment directly, or to reassure patients that a serious cause for their symptoms is unlikely. N medicine, numerous decisions are made by care providers, often in shared decision making, on the basis of an estimated probability that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic setting) or a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic setting) in an individual. They may range from demographic characteristics (for example, age and sex), medical history–taking, and physical examination results to results from imaging, electrophysiology, blood and urine measurements, pathologic examinations, and disease stages or characteristics, or results from genomics, proteomics, transcriptomics, pharmacogenomics, metabolomics, and other new biological measurement platforms that continuously emerge. Predictors are also referred to as covariates, risk indicators, prognostic factors, determinants, test results, or-more statistically-independent variables. The TRIPOD checklist can also be downloaded from I To aid the editorial process and help peer reviewers and, ultimately, readers and systematic reviewers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission. The document also provides a valuable reference of issues to consider when designing, conducting, and analyzing prediction model studies. Panied by published examples of good reporting. Each checklist item of the TRIPOD Statement is explained in detail and accom. This explanation and elaboration document describes the rationale clarifies the meaning of each item and discusses why transparent reporting is important, with a view to assessing risk of bias and clinical usefulness of the prediction model. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD (Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis) Statement includes a 22-item checklist, which aims to improve the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes.
Ioannidis, MD, DSc Petra Macaskill, PhD Ewout W. Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): Explanation and Elaboration Karel G.M.
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